order,date,event,market,timing,magnitude_usd_millions,metric,source,investigation_status
1,"Mar 3, 2025",Tariff announcement,Equities,Day before,0.0,"16 lawmakers traded, both parties",Congressional disclosures,none
2,"Apr 9, 2025",Tariff pause,Options (SPY),Hours before,0.0,"SPY calls +2,100% in 1hr",Unusual Whales,none
3,"Oct 10, 2025",100% China tariff,Crypto (Hyperliquid),<1hr before,1100.0,"$1.1B shorts, ~$200M profit",Arkham Intelligence,none
4,"Jan 2, 2026",Maduro capture,Polymarket,Hours before,0.4,$32K → $400K+,"NYT, Reuters",none
5,"Feb 28, 2026",Iran war launch,Polymarket,Hours before,1.2,"150+ accounts, $1.2M (6 ID'd)","NYT, Bubblemaps",none
6,"Mar 23, 2026",Iran strike pause,Oil + S&P futures,15 min before,580.0,"~6,200 contracts, $580M + $1.5-2B S&P",FT/Bloomberg,"CFTC, opened Apr 15"
7,"Apr 7, 2026",US-Iran ceasefire,Oil futures,Hours before,950.0,~$950M on falling prices,FT/Bloomberg,"CFTC, opened Apr 15"
8,"Apr 17, 2026",Strait of Hormuz reopens,Brent futures,20 min before,760.0,"7,990 contracts, ~$760M in one minute",LSEG,none