cancer_type,trend_slope_per_year,trend_2020_projected,trend_2021_projected,trend_2022_projected,trend_2023_projected,actual_2020,actual_2021,actual_2022,actual_2023,deviation_2020_abs,deviation_2021_abs,deviation_2022_abs,deviation_2023_abs,deviation_2020_pct,deviation_2021_pct,deviation_2022_pct,deviation_2023_pct,interpretation
Lung & Bronchus,-4222,135356,131134,126912,122690,136340,131880,127070,124730,984,746,158,2040,0.7,0.6,0.1,1.7,"Decline continued roughly on trend; slight positive deviations are small relative to the series magnitude."
Colorectal,382,52948,53330,53712,54094,53200,52980,52550,52900,252,-350,-1162,-1194,0.5,-0.7,-2.2,-2.2,"2020 spike (+252) followed by deaths falling below trend — consistent with lockdown-era delayed diagnoses causing an early pulse then recovery."
Pancreas,986,50706,51692,52678,53664,47050,48220,50550,51980,-3656,-3472,-2128,-1684,-7.2,-6.7,-4.0,-3.1,"Actual deaths consistently below projected trend — the upward trend may be decelerating slightly."
Breast,328,43754,44082,44410,44738,42690,43780,43540,42780,-1064,-302,-870,-1958,-2.4,-0.7,-2.0,-4.4,"Deaths consistently below trend — could reflect improved treatment efficacy."
Prostate,736,31300,32036,32772,33508,33330,34500,34700,35250,2030,2464,1928,1742,6.5,7.7,5.9,5.2,"Largest positive deviation in dataset. Pre-pandemic trend was declining; the reversal began in 2018 with USPSTF guideline change — linear trend from 2015-2019 understates the true baseline shift."
Liver,1146,34002,35148,36294,37440,30230,30930,32540,32540,-3772,-4218,-3754,-4900,-11.1,-12.0,-10.3,-13.1,"Deaths consistently and significantly below trend — mortality improvements may be outpacing incidence growth."
Leukemia,-122,23172,23050,22928,22806,23100,23660,24600,24000,-72,610,1672,1194,-0.3,2.6,7.3,5.2,"Was on mild declining trend; 2021-2022 reversal represents largest percentage deviation from trend after Prostate."
Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma,-130,19450,19320,19190,19060,19060,20010,20380,20140,-390,690,1190,1080,-2.0,3.6,6.2,5.7,"Similar pattern to Leukemia — blood cancers show notable post-2020 positive deviations."
Brain & CNS,264,18048,18312,18576,18840,18020,18600,18990,18760,-28,288,414,-80,-0.2,1.6,2.2,-0.4,"Close to trend throughout."
Bladder,432,18298,18730,19162,19594,17980,17390,17100,16700,-318,-1340,-2062,-2894,-1.7,-7.2,-10.8,-14.8,"Deaths falling further below trend each year — suggests genuine mortality improvement."
Esophagus,144,16606,16750,16894,17038,15530,15480,15640,15290,-1076,-1270,-1254,-1748,-6.5,-7.6,-7.4,-10.3,"Consistent below-trend improvement."
Kidney,66,14746,14812,14878,14944,13920,14110,14440,14440,-826,-702,-438,-504,-5.6,-4.7,-2.9,-3.4,"Mild below-trend deviation."
Uterine,426,12546,12972,13398,13824,12940,13780,14480,14280,394,808,1082,456,3.1,6.2,8.1,3.3,"Consistent positive deviations — death rate rising faster than even the pre-pandemic upward trend."
Stomach,72,11468,11540,11612,11684,11090,11320,11130,10890,-378,-220,-482,-794,-3.3,-1.9,-4.1,-6.8,"Deaths falling below trend."