category,cases_per_million,denominator_type,notes,source
COVID-19 infection (any),2760,per million infections,IFR-based; ~1.24M deaths / ~400M estimated infections,CDC case surveillance / Wikipedia COVID pandemic US statistics
mRNA dose 2 males 16-17,105.9,per million doses,Highest single subgroup; VAERS adjudicated,JAMA 2022 (Oster et al.) PMID 35076665
mRNA dose 2 males 18-24,54,per million doses,Combined Pfizer + Moderna average,JAMA 2022 (Oster et al.)
mRNA dose 2 overall (all ages/sexes),19.7,per million doses,VSD active surveillance,CIDRAP citing ACIP June 2025 presentation
mRNA any dose combined (dose1+dose2+2024-25),27.7,per million doses,Simple addition: 6+19.7+2; non-overlapping dose groups,Derived from CIDRAP/ACIP + CDC VSD data
mRNA dose 1 overall,6,per million doses,Statistically significant but small excess,CIDRAP citing ACIP June 2025
mRNA 2023-24 formulation,5,per million doses,VSD active surveillance >123M doses,CDC VSD via North Dakota HHS 2025
mRNA 2024-25 formulation,2,per million doses,75% reduction from prior year; VSD >123M doses,CDC VSD; CIDRAP June 2025
pre-vaccine background (7-day window),1.05,per million persons per 7-day period,0.2-1.9/M range; used as background comparator,FDA slide deck / CDC WONDER background estimate
sources_detail,"CIDRAP op-ed June 2025 citing ACIP presentation. Oster ME et al JAMA 2022;327:331-340. FDA labeling update 2024. CDC VSD North Dakota HHS document. Annals Intern Med 2022 (Goddard et al. VSD study).",,,
notes_vaccine_deaths,"EudraVigilance (EU): 128 deaths across 16514 reported cases = 0.2 per 10M doses. CDC VSD active surveillance: zero confirmed vaccine-myocarditis deaths. CDC MMWR June 2021: none of 323 confirmed cases had died at time of report.",,,