year,incident_cases_thousands,deaths_thousands,asir_per_100k,asdr_per_100k,data_quality
1990,780,19.6,16.74,0.46,GBD confirmed baseline
1995,850,20.2,16.5,0.45,GBD interpolated
2000,910,21.0,16.3,0.44,GBD interpolated
2005,980,22.5,16.2,0.44,GBD interpolated
2010,1060,24.8,16.1,0.43,GBD interpolated
2015,1150,27.4,16.0,0.42,GBD interpolated
2016,1175,28.0,16.0,0.41,GBD 2021 data point (ASIR uptick begins)
2017,1200,28.5,16.0,0.41,GBD 2021 data point
2018,1230,30.0,16.1,0.41,GBD 2021 data point
2019,1266,32.4,16.00,0.43,GBD 2019 confirmed anchor
2020,1288,31.5,16.1,0.40,GBD 2021 data point
2021,1300,31.7,16.16,0.40,GBD 2021 CONFIRMED FINAL (Li et al. Eur J Heart Fail 2024)
2022-2025,,,,,NO DATA — GBD publishes with 3-year lag; no peer-reviewed global figures exist
sources,GBD Study 2021 (204 countries). Li et al. Eur J Heart Fail 2024. BMC Cardiovasc Disord 2024. PubMed 39439264.,,,,
notes,"ASIR = Age-Standardized Incidence Rate. Total cases rose 66.9% from 1990-2021 largely due to population growth not rate increase. Hard data wall at 2021.",,,,