year,cardiac_I30_I51,cardiac_I30_I51_rate_per_100k,r95_r99_unknown,r95_r99_rate,r50_r68_symptoms,covid_u_codes,population_millions,total_all_causes,total_rate_per_100k,source
2018,158,0.63,73,0.29,32,0,25.01,6862,27.4,CDC WONDER 2018-2024 direct query Mar14 2026 ages 12-17
2019,153,0.61,61,0.24,33,0,25.02,6656,26.6,CDC WONDER 2018-2024
2020,164,0.65,98,0.39,35,62,25.14,7785,31.0,CDC WONDER 2018-2024 — COVID year 1; no vaccine
2021,181,0.69,98,0.37,37,221,26.15,8495,32.5,CDC WONDER 2018-2024 — 16+ vax Dec2020; 12-15 vax May2021
2022,203,0.79,86,0.33,38,124,25.81,8553,33.1,CDC WONDER 2018-2024 — PEAK cardiac year; full coverage; Omicron era
2023,168,0.65,87,0.33,25,34,25.99,8599,33.1,CDC WONDER 2018-2024
2024,164,0.63,96,0.37,36,26,26.04,7781,29.9,CDC WONDER 2018-2024
vaccine_approvals_relevant_to_age_group,,,,,,,,,,
event,date,details,,,,,,,,
16plus_Pfizer_EUA,2020-12-11,First mRNA approval for this age group,,,,,,,,
12to15_Pfizer_EUA,2021-05-10,Extended to 12-15 years,,,,,,,,
notes_I30_I51,"I30-I51 Other forms of heart disease includes: I30-I31 pericarditis, I33 endocarditis, I40 acute myocarditis, I42 cardiomyopathy, I46 cardiac arrest, I47-I49 arrhythmias, I50 heart failure. This is the correct ICD sub-chapter for a vaccine myocarditis signal. Cannot distinguish COVID-myocarditis from vaccine-myocarditis without individual death certificates.",,,,,,,,,,
notes_temporal_pattern,"Cardiac deaths 2020 (+11 vs 2019) < 2021 (+28) < 2022 (+50 = peak). This is inverse of expected COVID-infection pattern (worst pre-vax). Peak year (2022) = Omicron era (mild COVID) + full pediatric vaccine coverage. Falls in 2023-2024 as vaccine uptake collapses. Pattern more consistent with vaccine contribution than COVID infection alone. Cannot be proven without individual-level data.",,,,,,,,,,
source_full,"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics System, Mortality 2018-2024 on CDC WONDER Online Database, released 2026. Accessed March 14 2026 at https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10-expanded.html",,,,,,,,,,