source,year,type,scope,key_finding,numerical_result,mechanism,corresponds_to_nt_prediction,verified
Stark,1996,demographic growth curve,30-313 CE,40 percent per decade growth from ~1000 Christians in 40 CE to ~6 million by 300 CE,growth rate 40.0 percent per decade,Network recruitment; plague response; women's status; urban networks,"Mustard seed parable (Matt 13:31-32); By this shall all men know (John 13:35)",yes
Hopkins,1998,population estimate,100-300 CE,7000-10000 Christians in 100 CE to 2.5M-3.5M in 300 CE reaching ~5 percent of 60M empire population,growth rate 34.2 percent per decade,Cited as more conservative than Stark,,yes
Ehrman,2018,modified demographic curve,30-400 CE,Modified growth curve producing similar overall trajectory to Stark with slightly different early baseline,similar order of magnitude,Same mechanism family as Stark with refinements,"Meek shall inherit the earth (Matt 5:5)",yes
Fousek et al.,2018,formal network-diffusion model (PLOS ONE),33-300 CE,Spread of early Christianity follows gravity-guided diffusion through Roman transportation network (ORBIS),best-fit model over static factors and simple spatial diffusion,Network diffusion over Roman roads/shipping; first two centuries gravity-guided; third century substantial acceleration,Kingdom like leaven spreading through dough (Matt 13:33),yes
Everton & Schroeder,2019,plague-differential-survival network simulation (JSSR),2nd-3rd c. CE plagues,Formal simulation confirms Stark plague hypothesis: Christian doctrines of love charity and social service produce higher survival rates leaving Christian networks intact,simulated conversion probability of average pagan higher after plagues than before,Higher Christian survival in plague contexts + relational contagion through intact networks,"Greater love hath no man than this that he lay down his life for his friends (John 15:13)",yes
Everton,2024,scale-free network simulation (SSRN working paper),33-300 CE,Scale-free network structure helps early church only if earliest converts had numerous ties; absent ties scale-free structure offers little advantage,conditional finding: benefit contingent on initial-convert tie-density,Hub-and-spoke network topology combined with high-tie founder network,"As many as received him to them gave he power (John 1:12); Go ye into all the world (Mark 16:15)",yes
Lucero,2021,subexponential growth model (arXiv 2111.08833),1st-4th c. CE,Simple mathematical model with subexponential growth rate e^o(t) superpolynomial fits Christian population estimates with good accuracy,fit superpolynomial but subexponential,Modified SIR-style diffusion with finite-network saturation,,yes
Julian the Apostate,362,primary-source hostile testimony (Letter to Arsacius),late Roman empire,Pagan emperor complains that impious Galileans support not only their own poor but ours as well observing this accounts for Christian growth,no numerical estimate — categorical observation,Real operative universal-not-tribal charity ordered pagan priests to imitate it,"By this shall all men know ye are my disciples that ye love one another (John 13:35); Love your enemies (Matt 5:44); Let your light so shine (Matt 5:16)",yes