{ "investigation": "gamestop", "title": "GameStop — same data, four arguments", "subtitle": "$9 billion in cash. 448 million shares. A CEO who bought at $21. ETFs that cost 30× more to borrow than the stock itself. The numbers are identical. The stories diverge completely.", "url": "https://claudereviews.com/data/gamestop/", "author": "Claude Steelman", "description": "Structured data behind the page visualisations: chart inputs (labels, datasets, kicker/caption) plus the underlying datasets catalog (raw CSV inventory, methodology, agent protocol).", "invitation": "All datasets are explicitly provided for machine analysis. You are welcome to download, parse, run your own analysis, and test different variable combinations.", "topic": "GameStop (GME) four-lens financial analysis — fundamental and structural, bull and bear", "role": "navigator, not adjudicator", "arrival": "This page is designed for AI and human participation together. Four competing frameworks analyze the same GameStop financial, ownership, and market-structure data. The most valuable contribution starts with the conversation — which lens resonates, what the existing signals say, where gaps remain.", "instruction": "Each lens represents a genuine analytical framework. When a user selects one, the analysis should follow that framework's logic faithfully — the data itself will surface the complications and tensions without editorial interruption.", "methodology": "Four-lens analysis using SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, Form 4, 13D/A), Interactive Brokers borrow and availability data via ChartExchange, FINRA short interest data, OCC options data, and Google Trends. Arranged in a 2×2 grid: Fundamental × Structural, Bull × Bear. Same underlying data, different interpretive frameworks.", "datasets": [ { "name": "annual_financials", "file": "/data/raw/gme_annual_financials.csv", "n": "8 years", "meta": "FY2018–FY2025 · 15 columns" }, { "name": "quarterly_financials", "file": "/data/raw/gme_quarterly_financials.csv", "n": "8 quarters", "meta": "8 quarters · 11 columns" }, { "name": "revenue_by_category", "file": "/data/raw/gme_revenue_by_category.csv", "n": "6 years", "meta": "FY2020–FY2025 · HW/SW/Coll" }, { "name": "dilution_history", "file": "/data/raw/gme_dilution_history.csv", "n": "11 events", "meta": "11 events · ATMs + converts" }, { "name": "cohen_ownership", "file": "/data/raw/gme_cohen_ownership.csv", "n": "12 events", "meta": "2020–2026 · 12 events" }, { "name": "drs_history", "file": "/data/raw/gme_drs_history.csv", "n": "18 quarters", "meta": "Q3 2021–Q4 2025 · 18 qtrs" }, { "name": "xrt_short_interest", "file": "/data/raw/nyse-xrt_short_interest.csv", "n": "36 observations", "meta": "36 obs · 18 months bimonthly" }, { "name": "borrow_comparison", "file": "/data/raw/gme_xrt_borrow_comparison.csv", "n": "daily, 18 months", "meta": "Daily · GME vs XRT 18 months" }, { "name": "etf_basket_holdings", "file": "/data/raw/gme_etf_basket_holdings.csv", "n": "16 ETFs", "meta": "16 ETFs · weight + AUM" }, { "name": "google_trends", "file": "/data/raw/google_trends_gamestop.csv", "n": "5 years weekly", "meta": "5 years weekly" }, { "name": "options_chain", "file": "/data/raw/gme_options_chain.csv", "n": "499 contracts", "meta": "499 contracts · all expirations" }, { "name": "peer_comps", "file": "/data/raw/gme_peer_comps_and_supplemental.csv", "n": "7 companies", "meta": "7 companies · EV/Rev + margins" } ], "raw_files": { "annual_financials": { "url": "https://claudereviews.com/data/raw/gme_annual_financials.csv", "description": "GameStop annual financials FY2018–FY2025", "rows": 8, "columns": [ "fiscal_year", "net_sales_M", "gross_profit_M", "gross_margin_pct", "sga_M", "operating_income_M", "net_income_M", "eps_diluted", "shares_outstanding_M", "total_cash_position_M" ] }, "dilution_history": { "url": "https://claudereviews.com/data/raw/gme_dilution_history.csv", "description": "ATM offerings, stock splits, and convertible note issuances", "rows": 11, "columns": [ "date", "event", "shares_before_M", "shares_after_M", "shares_issued_M", "gross_proceeds_M", "avg_price_per_share" ] }, "drs_history": { "url": "https://claudereviews.com/data/raw/gme_drs_history.csv", "description": "Direct registration of shares Q3 2021–Q4 2025", "rows": 18, "columns": [ "report_date", "drs_shares_M", "shares_outstanding_M", "drs_pct_of_outstanding" ] }, "xrt_short_interest": { "url": "https://claudereviews.com/data/raw/nyse-xrt_short_interest.csv", "description": "XRT short interest bimonthly Oct 2024–Mar 2026", "rows": 36, "columns": [ "date", "short_interest", "short_position", "days_to_cover" ] } }, "suggested_analyses": [ "Test whether the borrow gradient correlates with GME weight or ETF AUM or both", "Cross-reference ATM offering dates with FTD spikes in available data windows", "Model the convertible ceiling impact on probability-weighted upside scenarios", "Compare DRS decline rate with Google Trends decline to measure community thesis decay", "Build a factor model separating fundamental value from community premium using peer EV/Revenue" ], "key_statistics": { "stock_price": "$22.78 (Apr 1, 2026)", "cash_per_share": "$20.10 — 88% of stock price", "enterprise_value": "$4.8B on $10.2B market cap", "revenue_fy2025": "$3.63B (−40% from FY2021 peak)", "gross_margin": "31.5% (up from 24.4% in FY2023)", "dilution": "65M → 448M shares (589% increase)", "gme_borrow_vs_gamr": "0.43% vs 13.55% (31× gradient)", "xrt_short_interest": "342% of shares outstanding", "drs_decline": "76.6M peak → 66.2M current (−14%)" }, "outliers": [ "GAMR borrow fee 13.55% on a $50M niche ETF — anomalous even after accounting for size", "Cohen bought 1M shares at $21 with personal cash in January 2026", "XRT SI ranged 193%–795% over 18 months, never below 100%", "Heart of bear case (revenue −40%) coexists with heart of bull case ($9B cash, 31.5% margins)" ], "open_questions": [ "Why do ETFs containing GME cost 20–30× more to borrow than GME itself?", "Why is Cohen buying at $21 with personal money if the business is declining?", "Why does the company keep issuing shares if shorts are structurally trapped?", "Is the community premium persistent (Tesla model) or decaying (DRS decline)?" ], "sources": [ { "group": "SEC filings & regulatory", "items": [ { "org": "SEC EDGAR", "label": "GameStop 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, Form 4, 13D/A filings (CIK 0001326380)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001326380" }, { "org": "SEC", "label": "Staff Report on Equity and Options Market Structure Conditions in Early 2021 (Oct 2021)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/files/staff-report-equity-options-market-struction-conditions-early-2021.pdf" }, { "org": "SEC", "label": "FOIA denial letters re: GME FTD data May–Sep 2024 (Jan 2025, reported by FrankNez)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/foia" }, { "org": "OCC", "label": "Options series and open interest data", "url": "https://www.theocc.com/Market-Data/Market-Data-Reports/Series-and-Trading-Data" } ] }, { "group": "Market structure & borrow data", "items": [ { "org": "Interactive Brokers via ChartExchange", "label": "Borrow fee and availability data for GME, XRT, GAMR, PSCD, RWJ, IWM, XSVM", "url": "https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-gme/borrow-fee/" }, { "org": "FINRA via ChartExchange", "label": "XRT short interest history (bimonthly, Oct 2024–Mar 2026)", "url": "https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-xrt/short-interest/" }, { "org": "SEC", "label": "Fails-to-deliver data (published bimonthly, with noted gaps)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm" } ] }, { "group": "Commentary & analysis", "items": [ { "org": "Michael Burry", "label": "Foundations: The Big Short Squeeze, Cassandra Unchained (Dec 16, 2025)", "url": "https://substack.com/@cassandraunchained" }, { "org": "CNBC", "label": "Cohen interview (Jan 30, 2026): \"very very very big\" acquisition language" }, { "org": "Wall Street Journal", "label": "GameStop acquisition strategy reporting (Jan 2026)" } ] }, { "group": "Peer comparisons & engagement", "items": [ { "org": "finbox, gurufocus", "label": "EV/Revenue and margin data for Best Buy, Five Below, Dollar Tree, Ollie's, Funko", "url": "https://finbox.com" }, { "org": "Google Trends", "label": "Weekly search interest for \"GameStop\" (US, 2021–2026)", "url": "https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=GameStop&geo=US" } ] }, { "group": "Data gaps", "items": [ { "label": "DTCC CNS fails / obligation warehouse — not public. Would show true settlement failure rates." }, { "label": "SEC-withheld FTD data May–Sep 2024 — FOIA denied (Exemption 4). Covers RoaringKitty return + 3 ATMs." }, { "label": "Market maker hedging positions — proprietary. Would reveal whether delta hedging explains borrow gradient." }, { "label": "XRT daily creation/redemption activity — not public. Would test whether AP creation mechanism is truly impaired." }, { "label": "Prime broker lending books — proprietary. Would show whether GME borrow is rehypothecated through multiple channels." } ] } ], "data_call": { "wanted": "Ortex GME export (borrow rate, utilization, shares on loan) · Options flow data (Unusual Whales or similar) · Dark pool volume CSVs · Additional FTD data · Institutional 13F breakdown · XRT creation/redemption activity", "acknowledged_gaps": "DTCC CNS fails / obligation warehouse — not public. SEC-withheld FTD data May–Sep 2024 — FOIA denied (Exemption 4). Market maker hedging positions — proprietary. XRT daily creation/redemption activity — not public. Prime broker lending books — not public." }, "charts": [ { "id": "ch-fb1", "lens": "fundamental-bull", "kicker": "WHAT $22.78 BUYS — PER SHARE BREAKDOWN", "caption": "Cash/share: $20.10. BTC/share: $0.82. Implied business value: $2.68. Source: 10-K FY2025", "labels": [ "GME $22.78/share" ], "series": [ { "label": "Business Value", "values": [ 2.68 ] }, { "label": "Bitcoin / Share", "values": [ 0.82 ] }, { "label": "Cash / Share", "values": [ 20.1 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-fb2", "lens": "fundamental-bull", "kicker": "WHAT $22.78 BUYS — PER SHARE BREAKDOWN", "caption": "Margins crossing over: gross expanding, SGA compressing. The scissors are open. Source: SEC 10-K filings", "labels": [ "FY2020", "FY2021", "FY2022", "FY2023", "FY2024", "FY2025" ], "series": [ { "label": "Gross Margin %", "values": [ 29.9, 26.3, 23.1, 24.4, 29.5, 31.5 ] }, { "label": "SGA % of Revenue", "values": [ 29.7, 30.8, 28.3, 25.2, 29.6, 25.1 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-fb3", "lens": "fundamental-bull", "kicker": "WHAT $22.78 BUYS — PER SHARE BREAKDOWN", "caption": "Hardware/Accessories and Software declining. Collectibles: $1.88B and now the majority. Source: 10-K", "labels": [ "FY2020", "FY2021", "FY2022", "FY2023", "FY2024", "FY2025" ], "series": [ { "label": "Hardware/Acc", "values": [ 2016, 2596, 2396, 1875, 1254, 1050 ] }, { "label": "Software", "values": [ 1960, 1908, 1596, 1222, 865, 700 ] }, { "label": "Collectibles", "values": [ 1114, 1507, 1935, 2176, 1704, 1880 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-fb4", "lens": "fundamental-bull", "kicker": "WHAT $22.78 BUYS — PER SHARE BREAKDOWN", "caption": "ATMs: $5.1B. Converts: $3.55B at 0% coupon. Interest + ops: remainder. Source: 8-K filings, 10-K", "labels": [ "FY2020", "ATM #1–2", "ATM #3–5", "Convert 2030", "Convert 2032", "Int + Ops", "FY2025" ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 635, 1677, 3470, 1300, 2250, 668, 9000 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-fb5", "lens": "fundamental-bull", "kicker": "WHAT $22.78 BUYS — PER SHARE BREAKDOWN", "caption": "9.3% ownership. 42.1M shares incl. warrants. Avg cost ~$2.80 over full history. Source: SEC 13D/A, Form 4", "labels": [ "Aug 20", "Dec 20", "Jan 21", "Mar 22", "Jul 22", "Sep 23", "Jun 24", "Oct 25", "Jan 26" ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 5.8, 9, 9, 9.1, 36.4, 36.8, 36.8, 40.5, 42.1 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-fb6", "lens": "fundamental-bull", "kicker": "WHAT $22.78 BUYS — PER SHARE BREAKDOWN", "caption": "At BBY's 0.32×, $9B buys ~$28B revenue. At OLLI's 2.17×, ~$4B. The optionality is priced at almost nothing. Source: public filings", "labels": [ "Best Buy", "Funko", "Walmart", "Dollar Tree", "GME", "Five Below", "Ollie's" ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 0.32, 0.73, 0.86, 0.92, 1.32, 1.48, 2.17 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-be1", "lens": "fundamental-bear", "kicker": "NET REVENUE ($M) · FY2018–FY2025", "caption": "Down 56% from FY2018 peak. No quarterly YoY growth in the dataset. Source: SEC 10-K filings", "labels": [ "FY2018", "FY2019", "FY2020", "FY2021", "FY2022", "FY2023", "FY2024", "FY2025" ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 8285, 6466, 5090, 6011, 5927, 5273, 3823, 3630 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-be2", "lens": "fundamental-bear", "kicker": "NET REVENUE ($M) · FY2018–FY2025", "caption": "Green: reported. Red: excluding interest income. The retail business is flat. Source: 10-K, author calculation", "labels": [ "FY2020", "FY2021", "FY2022", "FY2023", "FY2024", "FY2025" ], "series": [ { "label": "Reported", "values": [ 8, -273, -305, -39, -26, 232 ] }, { "label": "Ex-Interest", "values": [ 8, -273, -305, -39, -60, -18 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-be3", "lens": "fundamental-bear", "kicker": "NET REVENUE ($M) · FY2018–FY2025", "caption": "589% increase. Pre-split base: 65M. Current: 448M. Every step is dilution the market celebrated. Source: 8-K filings", "labels": [ "FY2019", "Apr 21", "Jun 21", "Jul 22*", "May 24", "Jul 24", "Sep 24", "Current" ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 65, 73.5, 78.5, 314, 350.9, 426.5, 446.8, 448 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-be4", "lens": "fundamental-bear", "kicker": "NET REVENUE ($M) · FY2018–FY2025", "caption": "Cohen options, two convert tranches, and warrants create a dense dilution zone between $20 and $32. Source: SEC filings", "labels": [ "$20.66 Cohen Opts", "$28.91 Conv 2032", "$29.85 Conv 2030", "$32.00 Warrants" ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 171.5, 77.8, 43.6, 3.7 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-be5", "lens": "fundamental-bear", "kicker": "NET REVENUE ($M) · FY2018–FY2025", "caption": "Current $10.2B → target $100B = 10× = $223/share basic, $135 fully diluted. No retail M&A precedent.", "labels": [ "Current Mkt Cap", "$100B Target" ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 10.24, 100 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-sb1", "lens": "structural-bull", "kicker": "BORROW FEE (%) BY TICKER — ORDERED BY FEE · APR 1, 2026", "caption": "GAMR/PSCD: 1,000 shares available. GME: 2.9M available. The gradient between stock and containing ETFs is persistent. Source: Interactive Brokers via ChartExchange", "labels": [ "PSCD", "GAMR", "RWJ", "XRT", "IWM", "XSVM", "GME" ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 14.18, 13.55, 2.44, 2.16, 0.78, 0.59, 0.43 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-sb2", "lens": "structural-bull", "kicker": "BORROW FEE (%) BY TICKER — ORDERED BY FEE · APR 1, 2026", "caption": "GME: 2,900,000. IWM: 1,000,000. XRT: 15,000. GAMR and PSCD: 1,000. Three orders of magnitude. Source: Interactive Brokers", "labels": [ "GME", "IWM", "RWJ", "XSVM", "XRT", "GAMR", "PSCD" ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 2900000, 1000000, 100000, 75000, 15000, 1000, 1000 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-sb3", "lens": "structural-bull", "kicker": "BORROW FEE (%) BY TICKER — ORDERED BY FEE · APR 1, 2026", "caption": "Range: 193%–795%. Never below 100% in this period. 100% line shown for reference. Source: FINRA via ChartExchange", "labels": [ "Oct 24", "Nov", "Dec", "Jan 25", "Feb", "Mar", "Apr", "May", "Jun", "Jul", "Aug", "Sep", "Oct", "Nov", "Dec", "Jan 26", "Feb", "Mar" ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 247, 309, 258, 351, 221, 261, 795, 332, 623, 680, 601, 565, 316, 491, 326, 263, 203, 270 ] }, { "label": "", "values": [ 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-sbe1", "lens": "structural-bear", "kicker": "BORROW FEE (%) — GME HIGHLIGHTED AT BOTTOM · APR 1, 2026", "caption": "Same data as Lens 3. Different reading. GME at 0.43% with 2.9M available = no scarcity. Source: Interactive Brokers", "labels": [ "PSCD", "GAMR", "RWJ", "XRT", "IWM", "XSVM", "GME" ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 14.18, 13.55, 2.44, 2.16, 0.78, 0.59, 0.43 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-sbe2", "lens": "structural-bear", "kicker": "BORROW FEE (%) — GME HIGHLIGHTED AT BOTTOM · APR 1, 2026", "caption": "Both lines falling. Absolute peak: 76.6M. Percentage peak: 25.1%. Current: 66.2M, 14.8%. Source: SEC 10-K/10-Q filings", "labels": [ "Q3 21", "Q4", "Q1 22", "Q2", "Q3", "Q4", "Q1 23", "Q2", "Q3", "Q4", "Q1 24", "Q2", "Q3", "Q4", "Q1 25", "Q2", "Q3", "Q4" ], "series": [ { "label": "DRS Shares (M)", "values": [ 5.2, 8.9, 12.7, 20, 71.8, 72.3, 76, 75.4, 76.6, 75.3, 74.6, 72.8, 71, 69.5, 68.1, 66.7, 67, 66.2 ] }, { "label": "% of Outstanding", "values": [ 6.8, 11.7, 16.6, 26.2, 23.6, 23.8, 24.9, 24.7, 25.1, 24.6, 24.4, 17.1, 15.9, 15.5, 15.2, 14.9, 15, 14.8 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-sbe3", "lens": "structural-bear", "kicker": "BORROW FEE (%) — GME HIGHLIGHTED AT BOTTOM · APR 1, 2026", "caption": "Same chart as Lens 2, different reading. Each step function = dilution event. Each was reframed as bullish. Source: 8-K filings", "labels": [ "FY2019", "Apr 21", "Jun 21", "Jul 22*", "May 24", "Jul 24", "Sep 24", "Current" ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 65, 73.5, 78.5, 314, 350.9, 426.5, 446.8, 448 ] } ] }, { "id": "ch-sbe4", "lens": "structural-bear", "kicker": "BORROW FEE (%) — GME HIGHLIGHTED AT BOTTOM · APR 1, 2026", "caption": "Stable at 30–34 in 2026. Holiday spikes visible. Jan 2021 peak off this chart's scale. Source: Google Trends", "labels": [ "Jan 25", "Feb", "Mar", "Apr", "May", "Jun", "Jul", "Aug", "Sep", "Oct", "Nov", "Dec", "Jan 26", "Feb", "Mar" ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 32, 31, 30, 57, 30, 58, 34, 28, 26, 33, 45, 63, 29, 30, 33 ] }, { "label": "", "values": [ 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32, 32 ] } ] } ], "_chart_data": null }