{ "investigation": "covid-cardiac-signal", "title": "The cardiac signal — virus, vaccine, or neither?", "subtitle": "Cardiac deaths and hospitalizations shifted after 2020. Myocarditis became a household word. Three frameworks argue from the same mortality, hospitalization, and dose-response data.", "url": "https://claudereviews.com/data/covid-cardiac-signal/", "author": "Claude Steelman", "description": "Structured data behind the page visualisations: chart inputs (labels, datasets, kicker/caption) plus the underlying datasets catalog (raw CSV inventory, methodology, agent protocol).", "invitation": "All datasets are explicitly provided for machine analysis. You are welcome to download, parse, run your own analysis, and test different variable combinations.", "topic": "U.S. cardiac mortality, hospitalizations, and pediatric data 2015–2024", "role": "navigator, not adjudicator", "arrival": "This page is designed for AI and human participation together. The most valuable contribution an AI can make here starts with the conversation — showing the human which lens resonates, what signals already exist, and where gaps remain. Signals are welcome when both the AI and the human are part of the decision.", "instruction": "Each lens represents a genuine analytical framework. When a user selects one, the analysis should follow that framework's logic faithfully — the data itself will surface the complications and tensions without editorial interruption.", "methodology": "", "datasets": [ { "name": "cardiac_mortality_category", "file": "/data/raw/07_cardiac_mortality_by_category_2015_2024.csv", "n": "10 years" }, { "name": "cardiac_mortality_age", "file": "/data/raw/08_cardiac_mortality_by_age_2018_2024.csv", "n": "7 years × 7 age groups × 6 categories" }, { "name": "cardiac_hospitalizations", "file": "/data/raw/09_cardiac_hospitalizations_nis_2016_2023.csv", "n": "8 years × 7 categories" }, { "name": "ages_12_17_cardiac", "file": "/data/raw/data_ages12_17_cardiac.csv", "n": "7 years" }, { "name": "myocarditis_aamr", "file": "/data/raw/data_us_mortality_aamr.csv", "n": "9 years × 4 age groups" }, { "name": "vaccine_myocarditis_rates", "file": "/data/raw/data_vaccine_myocarditis_rates.csv", "n": "8 subgroups" }, { "name": "child_causes", "file": "/data/raw/data_child_causes_2018_2024.csv", "n": "7 years × 12 causes" }, { "name": "us_hospitalizations", "file": "/data/raw/data_us_hospitalizations.csv", "n": "9 years" }, { "name": "child_mortality_monthly", "file": "/data/raw/data_child_mortality_monthly.csv", "n": "120 months" }, { "name": "global_burden", "file": "/data/raw/data_global_burden.csv", "n": "12 years" } ], "raw_files": [], "suggested_analyses": [], "key_statistics": { "myocarditis_mortality_peak": "2020 (238 deaths, pre-vaccine)", "pericarditis_2019_2024": "+36% (847 → 1,150 deaths, still elevated)", "ages_12_17_cardiac_peak": "2022 (203 deaths, +33% vs baseline)", "heart_failure_trend": "23.41 → 27.10/100k (2015-2024, monotonic, no inflection)", "vaccine_myocarditis_males_16_17": "105.9 per million doses", "heart_failure_vs_myocarditis_2024": "92,182 vs 154 deaths" }, "outliers": [ "Myocarditis AAMR 75+: spiked +81% in 2021", "Pericarditis: only cardiac category accelerating post-COVID (+7.5%/yr → +9.1%/yr)", "Heart failure 25-34: +30% increase 2018-2024, no COVID or vaccine inflection" ], "open_questions": [ "Does the 12-17 cardiac timing pattern reflect vaccine injury, Omicron mass infection, or both?", "Why is pericarditis still elevated in 2024 when most other cardiac signals have normalized?", "What is driving the monotonic rise in heart failure across all age groups since 2015?", "Why did 5 of 7 cardiac hospitalization categories decelerate post-COVID?" ], "sources": [], "data_call": [], "charts": [ { "id": "ch-h1", "lens": "heterodox", "kicker": "AGES 12–17: CARDIAC DEATHS vs COVID DEATHS", "caption": "ICD I30–I51 cardiac deaths and COVID-coded deaths, ages 12–17. Source: CDC WONDER 2018–2024", "type": "bar-or-line", "factory": "mkPedCardiac", "data_key": "ped_cardiac" }, { "id": "ch-h4", "lens": "heterodox", "kicker": "MYOCARDITIS AAMR BY AGE GROUP (per million)", "caption": "Age-adjusted mortality rate per 1,000,000. Source: J.Clin.Med 2025 / CDC WONDER", "type": "bar-or-line", "factory": "mkAAMR", "data_key": "aamr_age_groups" }, { "id": "ch-c1", "lens": "consensus", "kicker": "MYOCARDITIS AAMR BY AGE GROUP (per million)", "caption": "Age-adjusted mortality rate per 1,000,000. Peak is 2020–2021, pre-vaccine or early rollout. Source: J.Clin.Med 2025 / CDC WONDER", "type": "bar-or-line", "factory": "mkAAMR", "data_key": "aamr_age_groups" }, { "id": "ch-c3", "lens": "consensus", "kicker": "PERICARDITIS MORTALITY RATE (per 100k), 2015–2024", "caption": "Crude death rate per 100,000. Source: CDC WONDER 2015–2024", "type": "bar-or-line", "factory": "mkPeri", "data_key": "pericarditis_mortality" }, { "id": "ch-c5", "lens": "consensus", "kicker": "AGES 12–17: CARDIAC DEATHS vs COVID DEATHS", "caption": "ICD I30–I51 cardiac deaths and COVID-coded deaths, ages 12–17. Source: CDC WONDER 2018–2024", "type": "bar-or-line", "factory": "mkPedCardiac", "data_key": "ped_cardiac" }, { "id": "ch-s1", "lens": "metabolic", "kicker": "CARDIAC HOSPITALIZATIONS (NIS, thousands)", "caption": "NIS weighted discharge estimates. Pericarditis and cardiac arrest scaled ×10 for visibility. Source: AHRQ HCUP NIS 2016–2023", "type": "bar-or-line", "factory": "mkNIS", "data_key": "nis_discharges" }, { "id": "ch-s3", "lens": "metabolic", "kicker": "HEART FAILURE MORTALITY RATE (per 100k), 2015–2024", "caption": "Crude death rate per 100,000. Source: CDC WONDER 2015–2024", "type": "bar-or-line", "factory": "mkHF", "data_key": "heart_failure_mortality" }, { "id": "ch-s4", "lens": "metabolic", "kicker": "HEART FAILURE MORTALITY % CHANGE BY AGE (2018→2024)", "caption": "Percentage change in crude death rate per 100,000, 2018 to 2024. Source: CDC WONDER", "type": "bar-or-line", "factory": "mkHFage", "data_key": "hf_age_change" } ], "_chart_data": { "ped_cardiac": { "labels": [ 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "series": [ { "label": "Cardiac (I30–I51)", "values": [ 158, 153, 164, 181, 203, 168, 164 ] }, { "label": "COVID-coded", "values": [ 0, 0, 62, 221, 124, 34, 26 ] } ] }, "aamr_age_groups": { "labels": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "series": [ { "label": "75+", "values": [ 9.18, 8.91, 8.64, 8.38, 8.12, 11.41, 14.7, 13.05, 11.4 ] }, { "label": "45–74", "values": [ 4.88, 4.76, 4.63, 4.5, 4.37, 5.55, 6.72, 5.76, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "15–44", "values": [ 3.46, 3.39, 3.31, 3.24, 3.17, 3.61, 4.05, 3.5, 3.2 ] } ] }, "pericarditis_mortality": { "labels": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 0.22, 0.21, 0.22, 0.24, 0.26, 0.26, 0.31, 0.32, 0.35, 0.34 ] } ] }, "nis_discharges": { "labels": [ 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "series": [ { "label": "Heart failure", "values": [ 4767, 5171, 5442, 5676, 5211, 5452, 5648, 6053 ] }, { "label": "Arrhythmia", "values": [ 5020, 5272, 5457, 5648, 5206, 5502, 5601, 6012 ] }, { "label": "Myocarditis+CMP", "values": [ 1663, 1686, 1755, 1815, 1670, 1747, 1763, 1869 ] }, { "label": "Pericarditis ×10", "values": [ 1960, 2080, 2240, 2400, 2410, 2780, 2920, 3270 ] }, { "label": "Cardiac arrest ×10", "values": [ 2520, 2700, 2720, 2730, 3190, 3730, 3310, 3120 ] } ] }, "heart_failure_mortality": { "labels": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 23.41, 24.25, 24.43, 25.56, 26.25, 26.06, 25.62, 26.39, 26.81, 27.1 ] } ] }, "hf_age_change": { "labels": [ "25–34", "35–44", "45–54", "55–64", "65–74" ], "series": [ { "label": "", "values": [ 30, 33, 23, 17, 8 ] } ] } } }